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Let $X$ and $Y$ be random variables, s.t $X$~$Exp(1)$ and $Y$~$Exp(2)$. Let $Z=X+Y$ and $f_{X|Z}(x|z)$ be conditional density function of $X$ given $Z=z$.

Calculate: $f_{X|Z}(1|2)$

I knew how to calculate the density function of $Z$ by convolution. and then to know $f_{X|Z}(x|z)$ I used Bayes formula for density functions, but I got stuck of how to calculate the density function of $f_{Z|X}(z|x)$ where $X$ is a constant in the equation: $Z=X+Y$.

I would be glad of someone shows the way how to do it.

Note: final answer is: $\frac{e}{e^2-1}$.

  • 1
    You can find the answer to the question "What is $f_{Z\mid X}(z\mid x)$?" in the answers to _[this question](http://math.stackexchange.com/q/914890/15941)_ except that they have swapped the parameters of $X$ and $Y$; it is $Y$ that is exponentially distributed with parameter $1$ and $X$ that is exponentially distributed with parameter $2$.2017-02-25

1 Answers 1

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The probability density function of an an exponential random variable with parameter $\lambda$ has probability density function $$ f(x) = \begin{cases} \lambda e^{-\lambda x} & x \geq 0 \\ 0 & x < 0 \end{cases}$$

Therefore, the probability density function of $X$ is: $$ f_X(x) = \begin{cases} e^{-x} & x \geq 0 \\ 0 & x < 0 \end{cases}$$ and the probability density function of $Y$ is: $$ f_Y(y) = \begin{cases} 2e^{-2x} & x \geq 0 \\ 0 & x < 0 \end{cases}$$

The probability density function of $Z=X+Y$ is the convolution of the probability density functions of $X$ and $Y$. Therefore \begin{align} f_Z(z) &= \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} f_X(t)f_Y(z-t)\, dt \end{align} In order to get a formula for $f_Z$, we note that we care about when the integrand is nonzero. By the definitions of $f_X$ and $f_Y$, this is when $t \geq 0$ and $z \geq t$. Therefore, we care about integrating over the interval $0 \leq t \leq z$, noting that if $z$ is negative, $f_Z(z) = 0$. If such is the case, we reduce the integral to: \begin{align} f_Z(z) &= \int_{0}^{z} f_X(t)f_Y(z-t)\, dt \\ &= \int_0^{z} 2e^{-t}e^{2t-2z} \, dt \\ &= \int_0^{z} 2e^{t-2z} \, dt \\ &= 2e^{-2z} \int_0^{z} e^{t} \, dt \\ &= 2e^{-2z} (e^z - 1) \end{align} Therefore $$ f_Z(z) = \begin{cases} 2e^{-2z} (e^z - 1) & z \geq 0 \\ 0 & x < 0 \end{cases}$$

Recall that by Bayes' Rule, $$ f_{X|Z}(1,2) = \frac{f_{Z|X}(2,1) f_X(1)}{f_Z(2)} $$

The probability density function $f_{Z|X}$ is a measure of how likely $Z$ is to be equal to $z$ given that $X = x$. Since $Z = X + Y$, this is the same as measuring how likely it is that $Y$ will equal $z-x$. Therefore: $$ f_{Z|X}(z,x) = f_Y(z-x) = \begin{cases} 2e^{-2(z-x)} & z \geq x \\ 0 & z < x \end{cases}$$

Therefore: \begin{align} f_{X|Z}(1,2) &= \frac{f_{Z|X}(2,1) f_X(1)}{f_Z(2)} \\ &= \frac{2e^{-2} \cdot e^{-1}}{2e^{-4}(e^2-1)} \\ &= \frac{e}{e^2-1} \end{align}