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Let $0

$$ \sum_{d=0}^{n-1}\binom{n-1}{d} p^d (1-p)^{n-1-d}=(n-1)p $$


Proof: By the binomial formula

$$ (p+q)^{n-1}=\sum_{d=0}^{n-1}\binom{n-1}{d}p^d q^{n-1-d} $$

Differentiating both sides with respect to $p$ and replacing $q=1-p$ we get $$ (n-1)(p+1-p)^{n-2}=\frac{1}{p}\sum_{d=0}^{n-1}\binom{n-1}{d}p^d (1-p)^{n-1-d} $$

and the result follows.


Question: let's consider the example with $n=3$, $p=0.3$. Then $$ \sum_{d=0}^{n-1}\binom{n-1}{d} p^d (1-p)^{n-1-d}= 0.7^2+(2*0.3*0.7)+(0.3^2)=1 $$ and $$ (n-1)p=2*0.3=0.6 $$


What am I doing wrong?

1 Answers 1

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You differentiated wrong. If you differentiate $p^d$ with respect to $p$ you should get $d\; p^{d-1}$, not just $p^{d-1}$. The binomial theorem should give you $$ \sum_{d=0}^{n-1} {n-1 \choose d} p^d (1-p)^{n-1-d} = 1$$ not $(n-1)p$. Perhaps you meant

$$ \sum_{d=0}^{n-1} {n-1 \choose d} d \; p^d (1-p)^{n-1-d} = (n-1) p $$