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I'm following Tsay's "Analysis of Financial Time Series", chapter 11.

The topic is derive the Kalman filter in the simple case of the local linear model $$ y_t = \mu_t + e_t \\ \mu_{t+1} = \mu_t + \eta_t $$ with $\{e_t\}$, $\{\eta_t\}$ independent zero-mean gaussian noise with variances, respectively, $\sigma^2_e$ and $\sigma^2_\eta$.

Further notation:

  • $F_t = \{y_1, \ldots , y_t \}$ is the set of observations from time $1$ to time $t$;
  • $y_{t \mid t-1} = E \left( y_t \mid F_{t-1} \right)$ is the prediction of the observation;
  • $v_t = y_t - y_{t \mid t-1}$, is the 1-step forecast error.

I find "the forecast error $v_t$ is independent of $F_{t-1}$" so $$ Var \left( v_t \mid F_{t-1} \right) = Var \left( v_t \right), $$ and also "the information set $F_t$ can be written as $F_t = \left\{ F_{t-1}, y_t \right\} = \left\{ F_{t-1}, v_t \right\}$".

I'm not seeing this independence, or "equivalence" in knowing $y_t$ or $v_t$.

Someone could help? Thank you

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