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A random variable $X$ has $E(X) = 10$ and $SD(x) = 4$. Find upper and lower bounds for $P(0 < X < 40)$

My guess is we need to use Chebyshev's inequality. Since we know $X$ must be between 0 and 40, can we first break it up into $P(X>0)$ and $P(X<40)$? How would I solve this problem?

1 Answers 1

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Lower bound

Since the event in Chebyshev's inequality

$$P(|X-\mu| \ge \epsilon) \le \frac{\sigma^2}{\epsilon^2}\tag{*}\label{*}$$

is symmetric about $\mu = E(X) = 10$, so we consider $P(0 < X < 20) \le P(0 < X < 40)$ and try to find a lower bound for this question. Now we take $\epsilon = 10, \mu = 10, \sigma = 4$ in \eqref{*}.

\begin{aligned} P(|X - 10| \ge 10) &\le \left(\frac{4}{10}\right)^2 \\ P(X \le 0 \text{ or } X \ge 20) &\le \frac{4}{25} \\ P(0 < X < 20) &= P(|X-10|<10) \\ &= 1-P(|X-10|\ge10) \\ &\ge 1 - \frac{4}{25} = \frac{21}{25} \end{aligned}

Hence a lower bound would be

$$\frac{21}{25} \le P(0 < X < 20) \le P(0 < X < 40).$$

Upper bound

Without further information about random variable $X$, we can only conclude that $P(0 < X < 40)$ is bounded above by one by definition of probability due to the existence of a random variable which is distributed near enough to its mean.

Consider a random variable

$$X = \begin{cases} 14 & \text{ with probability } \frac12 \\ 6 & \text{ with probability } \frac12 \end{cases} $$

It's clear that $\mu = E(X) = 10$ and

\begin{align} \sigma =& \sqrt\frac{(14-10)^2+(6-10)^2}{2} \\ =& \sqrt\frac{4^2 + 4^2}{2} = 4. \end{align}

So $X$ satisfies the hypothesis of the question.

Therefore, in this particular case, $P(0 < X < 40) = 1$. In other words, any number less than one won't be an upper bound to the required probability.

Conclusion

In general, we have $$\frac{21}{25} \le P(0 < X < 40) \le 1.$$

  • 1
    Thank you! This makes a lot of sense2017-02-13
  • 0
    Out of curiosity, how would we find an upper bound for $P(X^2 \geq 800)$?, or generally anything that involves the squared random variable2017-02-13
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    Do you know anything about it's distribution? In general, Chebyshev's inequality can only give you a very *rough* bound, since it's proved by Markov's inequality, whose proof relies, again, on a very *rough* estimation.2017-02-13
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    @Jayant.M If you know it's distribution function, you may work directly with the definition and separate the positive and negative cases.2017-02-13