I'm not sure if I'm doing it right.
So stick one in its original place, we can have:
$(3^3-3*2^3+3*1^3) * 3 = 18$ arrangements
I'm not sure if I'm doing it right.
So stick one in its original place, we can have:
$(3^3-3*2^3+3*1^3) * 3 = 18$ arrangements
Just find the amount of derangements we have. Or you can just brute-force casework:
If exactly one is in the correct position ($4$ ways to assign) there are $2$ ways to assign the last three so that they're all in the wrong places so that $8.$
If two are in the right position there are $\binom{4}{2}=6$ ways to pick those then there's only one way to "derange" the remaining two. That's $6.$
And there's no ways to have exactly three right, and of course the case where everything is in the right place ($1234$). So the answer is $8+6+1=\boxed{15}.$
Alternatively we can count the derangements as mentioned before:
For any permutation let $f(n)$ be the position of the said number. So for $4231$ $f(4)=1, f(2)=2,$ etc.
If we form a "4-cycle" (as in $f(a)=b, f(b)=c, f(c)=d,$ and $f(d)=a$) there are 3 ways to do it.
If there's two "2-cycles" (as in $f(a)=b$ and $f(b)=a$) there are $\binom{4}{2}=6$ ways to pick the first group of $2$ and $1$ way to pick the second group. And there's only one way to have everything messed up in this case. So the answer is $24-(3+6)=\boxed{15}$, which was our answer with the first method.
Edit: If you want a general solution the other answer pretty much has it.
The easiest way to calculate $!n$ is through the recursion $!n=(n-1)(!(n-1)+!(n-2))$.
This gives $!1=0,!2=1,!3=2,!4=9$.
What you want is $4!-!4=24-9=15$.