I have this problem that I am trying to solve:
There is an event with a 1.83% chance or ~0.0183 probability of occurring. There is also a score counter that starts with a score of 100. Samples (or cycles) are run with a 100-1.83=98.17% chance of the event NOT occurring. Every sample where the event doesn't occur scores you +1. When the event occurs, it scores you -31 from the total score.
My question is, considering that these events can take place multiple times, how would one estimate the chance or probability of the score being >= 0 after 100, 200, 500 or N number of samples? A step by step explanation would be very appreciated if possible!