2
$\begingroup$

There are 10 horses running! If a horse has 50% chance to win, what is the chance of that same horse to finish in Top 3?

  • 17
    Not possible to determine given the information provided.2012-07-09
  • 11
    It is possible to determine to a degree: it is between 50% and 100%. :)2012-07-09
  • 0
    If you specify his odds of individually beating each of the other 9 horses a paired comparison model (e.g. Bradley-Terry) could be used to estimate the probability of ranking in the top 3.2012-07-09
  • 4
    This question is underspecified but I think it's valuable to try to think about how one could come up with an answer, as Gerry Myerson has done.2012-07-10
  • 0
    In horse racing, odds are set by parimutuel betting which is a market-based voting system. - There is no "event algebra"2012-07-10
  • 0
    These are really good answers! Thank you all who took time to think about this! I guess it is important to know the competition in that given race, because even if that horse has 50% chance to win, it's chances to finish in Top 3 are very different if in Race A the second strongest horse has 30% percent chance to win and the total of all the other horses chances are only 20%, so beating 4th strongest horse would be much easier than in Race B, where 3 horses would have 10% chance to win and are more competitive and the rest would total the other 20%!2012-07-10
  • 0
    So in Race B the chance to beat the 4th strongest horse is smaller!2012-07-10

3 Answers 3