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I have a set of hypothesis. Each hypothesis claims of probability of an event. For example:

  1. p(A) = 0;
  2. p(A) = 1/2;
  3. p(A) = 1;
  4. p(A) = 0.

Does the whole probability of A equal (0 + 1/2 + 1 + 0) / 4 = 0,375? All hypothesis are independent.

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    It depends on how likely each hypothesis is to be true. On the face of it there is no reason to believe they are equally likely (independent does not mean that), especially since two of them seem to be the same.2012-10-16
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    I'm interesting in the way when they are equally probable, even if this is abstract. If they are, could I take an average probability?2012-10-16

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