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Truthfully, this is a homework problem. I've come across a solution, but I'm really trying to figure out how this works, hopefully at an intuitive level.

We have four events, A, B, C and D, and we are trying to find the probability that exactly one event occurs.

I've seen the "Inclusion exclusion principle", and that would help if I had to find the probability of A or B or C or D. I feel this should be trivial, probability is my weakest math, which is why I'm taking it, but this particular problem is giving me a lot of trouble. Any help would be greatly appreciated.

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    Also posted on [reddit.com/r/math](http://www.reddit.com/r/math/comments/zwamg/ive_been_trying_to_figure_this_out_all_of_today/).2012-09-15

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