There are 10 horses running! If a horse has 50% chance to win, what is the chance of that same horse to finish in Top 3?
If a horse has 50% chance to win a 10 runner race, what is the chance to finish in Top 3?
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probability
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17Not possible to determine given the information provided. – 2012-07-09
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11It is possible to determine to a degree: it is between 50% and 100%. :) – 2012-07-09
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0If you specify his odds of individually beating each of the other 9 horses a paired comparison model (e.g. Bradley-Terry) could be used to estimate the probability of ranking in the top 3. – 2012-07-09
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4This question is underspecified but I think it's valuable to try to think about how one could come up with an answer, as Gerry Myerson has done. – 2012-07-10
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0In horse racing, odds are set by parimutuel betting which is a market-based voting system. - There is no "event algebra" – 2012-07-10
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0These are really good answers! Thank you all who took time to think about this! I guess it is important to know the competition in that given race, because even if that horse has 50% chance to win, it's chances to finish in Top 3 are very different if in Race A the second strongest horse has 30% percent chance to win and the total of all the other horses chances are only 20%, so beating 4th strongest horse would be much easier than in Race B, where 3 horses would have 10% chance to win and are more competitive and the rest would total the other 20%! – 2012-07-10
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0So in Race B the chance to beat the 4th strongest horse is smaller! – 2012-07-10