In fact the second term in the numerator is so small that for all $n\ge 0$, $F_n$ is the integer nearest $\varphi^n/\sqrt5$. Equivalently, $$F_n=\left\lfloor\frac{\varphi^n}{\sqrt5}+\frac12\right\rfloor\;.$$ When $n$ is odd, $\varphi^n/\sqrt5$ is a little more than $F_n$, and when $n$ is even, $\varphi^n/\sqrt5$ is a little less than $F_n$, but to a first approximation you want $\varphi^n\ge N\sqrt5$, or $$n\ge\frac{\ln N+\frac12\ln 5}{\ln\varphi}\;.\tag{1}$$ For $N=13$ the righthand side of $(1)$ is about $7.002463651556$, and indeed $F_7=13$; for $N=21$ the righthand side of $(1)$ is about $7.999058197424$, and $F_8$ is $13$. Even taking $N=2$ isn’t too bad: the righthand side of $(1)$ is about $3.112696028597$, and of course $F_3=2$.
On this evidence, even without doing a closer analysis of the error, it’s clear that $$\left\lceil\frac{\ln N+\frac12\ln 5}{\ln\varphi}\right\rceil$$ is going to be right except when $N=F_n$ for an odd $n$, when the fractional part of the righthand side of $(1)$ is very, very small even for rather modest values of $N$.