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I've been having a lot of discussions about finance recently in which people will point to some results using overlapping time periods and claim a high degree of statistical significance. For example, they might say only one 20 year period since 1900 (1900-1920, 1901-1921, etc) has experienced X. They will say they have 91 data points. I say they have about 5.5 independent data points and that using overlapping periods overstates the statistical significance of the results.

1) Am I missing something?

2) Is there any respected source I can point to on the subject, such as a widely used textbook?

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    I think about this too. I can't find a good answer neither searching the net nor in the stackexchange sites (stats, quant, here).2017-10-02

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