Given a poll, where $N$ people were polled, and $n_i$ people voted for party $i$, so that: $\sum{n_i} = N$ If there are M parliament seats in total we can expect: $m_i = M\cdot\lim_{N\rightarrow\infty} (n_i/N)$ To be the number of parliament seats party $i$ will have.
My question regards the error involved in this prediction:
What is it's error distribution and what is it's variance?
If the number of seats were not finite, I'd say that the distribution would be Poisson and each poll value should be $n_i \pm \sqrt{n_i}$, but since the sum is given, It would seem the errors must be correlated in some way.
Any ideas?