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I have to talk about conditional probability, Bayes theorem and law of large numbers. It is a talk for students who are not pure mathematicians, then it is in a simple way.

I have prepared some activities, for example to the law of large numbers, an activity with the function ALEATORIO.ENTRE(x;y) in Excel (this function makes "random" integers between $x$ and $y$), to simulate rolling a dice and calculate the frecuency probability approaches the theoretical probability.

Also, I have some videos (in Spanish) on the subject (history and short "games").

Any other ideas? References?

Thank you very much.

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    @Robert, you are right, sorry for my English.2012-10-25

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You might take a look at http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/08/science/08tier.html for a nice application of conditional probabilities.