I have a power generator that runs until it fails x times and stops. I want to try to predict how long it will run on average based on known probablities for failures during its operation. The probablity for a failure increases with time to some maximum value.
This is similar to this question except I think the answer given assumes the probability is reset to the start for each life. Where here probability can continue to rise after failures.
Failures are evaluated at ten second intervals. Here is the probablity for failure of the first ten, after which it starts to repeat at 68%.
.23, .38, .48, .55, .60, .63, .65, .66, .67, .68
Any links to information regarding this type of problem would be very appreciated (binomial distribution seems to be close but assumes constant a probability, where I need variable probability.)