Say a gossip magazine editor is paying 2 sources to gather information about a particular celebrity. From his past experience the editor knows source# 1 is right 80% of time, and source# 2 is right 65% of the time.
Now, for a particular case, the editor wants to be sure at least 95%. Say the source #1, gives the editor some information piece x. What is the end probability in the following cases:
a. source# 2 also gives same information b. source# 2 gives a different information about same thing than what source#1 gave.
In both above cases, what is the probability of the info from source #1 being correct?