0
$\begingroup$

Each day there is a chance (lets say for this example 15%) i get 500 euros over 5 days (this means 100 euro each day for the next 5 days that this will happen) How can i calculate the Average Income per Day for this probability? My thinking was :

1st day :IncomeChance * Amount /5 -> 0,15 *500 /5 = 15euro

2nd day : 2 * IncomeChance * Amount /5 -> 2* 0,15 *500 /5 = 30 euro

...

5th day : IncomeChance * Amount -> 0,15 *500 /5 = 75 euro

and from 5th day and over this stays as IncomeChance * Amount.

Can i include all the above in one result?

thank you

  • 0
    no you can win on day 2 too.. they are not depentable...2012-11-19

1 Answers 1

1

If there is a new draw every day, for each day after day 4 you receive 100 euro for each win in the preceding five, so your expectation is $5$ (tries) $\cdot 100$ (payout per win) $\cdot 15\%$ (chance of win)$=75$. For the first four days, decrease $5$ as you don't get that many tries, but in the long run you can ignore the startup transient.

  • 0
    @Excadrix: the long term expectation doesn't reflect how fast the money is paid. It is no different from being given 100 euros today or 1 euro per day for 100 euros. For the first four days, your expectation is 15, 30,45,60 euros.2012-11-19