Let's say that for each trial, there are two possible outcomes, A and B. Over time, A shows that it occurs 54% of the time, B is 46%. But there is another variable that affects the outcome of each trial. So A is not always .54 and B is not always .46.
I believe I can predict more accurately than 54% the outcome of each trial, but how do I know how successful I am?
Example:
Trial 1. I say it is 65% A. It comes up A. Trial 2. I say it is 50% A. It comes up B. Trial 3. I say it is 61% A. It comes up A.
Obviously I have done better than the standard 54%, but by how much? How is it measurable?
What if instead of 65, 50, 61 I had said 52, 40, 55. Would I have been more accurate then? (just an example to illustrate my question)
What method could be applied to show my accuracy rating over several hundred trials, each with a different 'guessed' % for A, and either an A or B outcome.
Ideally I want to compare two or more guessing methods, to see which is more accurate. But I can't wrap my brain around how to assign accuracy points for each trial, since the guess varies with each trial.