I have a quite small data set (on the order of 8-20) from an essentially unknown system and would like to predict a value that will be higher than the next number generated by the same system 90% of the time. Both underestimation and overestimation are problematic.
What is the mathematically "correct" way to do this?
If I could also generate a level-of-confidence estimate, it would wow my manager. Also, let me say I'm not a math major, so thanks for any help, however remedial it may be :)