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An English soccer team plays a series of matches again different opponents, of varying ability. A bookmaker offers odds for each match as to whether it will be a home win, away win, or draw. Part-way through the season, the team has played n matches, and has drawn k of them, which is more than might be expected from the odds. What is the probability that the bookmaker is mis-pricing the odds on these matches, rather than just being unlucky? If the bookmaker continues to price the team's remaining matches in a similar way, and I bet $1 that each one will be a draw, what is my expected return?

As an added bonus I will email the name of the team to the author of the best answer :-)

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    Willie, thanks for drawing my attention to the existence of stats.stackexchange - you're quite right, I shall go and ask there instead.2011-04-09

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This question has been asked at https://stats.stackexchange.com/q/9390/10259 and has already been answered there.