I'm wondering if probability is influenced by order of actions. For instance, lets have a problem:
Suppose there are two holes close together in a golf course. The golfer can hit the ball into either hole with equal probability. He is allowed to hit 4 times. Assuming he can always get the ball into one of the two holes. What is the probability that he could get 2 balls in each hole?
My solution is 1/5. This is result of (accepted results)/(possible outcomes). This seems a little simple to me, is it possible that the probability is influenced by order in which the player hits the shots?. Could anyone tell me if the result is correct please? Thanks in advance.