I drove my motorcycle to a fast food restaurant the other day. As I was waiting for my lunch, I noticed they still had their coffee condiments out. Not having any at home, I decided I'd grab a small handful and toss them into my motorcycle bag for later.
I always put two sweeteners in my coffee, but one day I pulled a sweetener out of my motorcycle bag and I didn't see a second.
I thought to myself, "I should keep looking; there's a 50/50 chance there's another one in here."
I'm a math novice so I asked some of my friends if they thought I was right. They weren't willing to assert either way, so I thought I'd ask here. Was I statistically sound in my conclusion?
EDIT: I haven't accepted an answer on this question yet, but I will be reviewing the answers soon. Part of the reason I haven't is because I feel like a lot of the answers are a smidgen pedantic (and I don't mean that in a negative way at all).
While I recognize that it's impossible to predict the distribution of a handful of sweeter packets because the universe is or is not random (whatever the case), I feel like a lot of people would fail a statistics course if they were to tell the professor a coin flip isn't 50/50 because, "nobody shuffles cards completely randomly, no die is unbiased, and you impart bias in a coin flip."
I was really hoping to get answers to this question based on the same simple model of the universe that allows statistics professors to teach and allows casinos to make fortunes based on the knowledge that a six sided die has, ceteris paribus, 6 equally likely outcomes.
I'm by no means saying that my original conclusion was correct, however, I'm not prepared to accept that it was wrong because of the "orientation of the hairs on my skin, the amount of blood distending my vessels, or the imperfections in my skin."